The sad state of Indian politics is not something I like to rant about. But the recent incident of Varun Gandhi delivering a provocative, disgusting and  religiously polarizing speech has forced me to write this post.

For the uninitiated, you might want to watch this video to see how politicians in India deliver speeches full of religious hatred to the masses in order to win votes and therefore the elections to the general and state assemblies:

With youth entering the Indian politics, I hoped that the speeches of these young politicians will focus more on development-related issues and topics that a common man can relate to. I thought that they will talk about how they plan to improve the living standard of people in the backward areas. But I guess I was wrong. This speech is very disappointing and saddening.

Maybe this whole thing about “younger people will bring fresh life to Indian polity” is incorrect. I do not see any young politician talking the real stuff, focusing on real issues. I understand that to win the vote of the masses some of the old gimmicks have to be adopted but not these ones.

Dude you want to cut their heads and do what? Push this country into civil war, fragment a society which is almost always at dew point on such matters!

As stated earlier, I would like to repeat that I am not any good in international affairs, foreign policy and diplomacy etc nor am I or my country perfect but I want to write about a topic that is very sensitive. I am not writing this article after any research. This article contains my views about what I have been reading/watching in media regarding religious fundamentalism, terrorism and the war on it.

I have been closely following the U.S. war on terrorism and how it has remained an under achiever till now. I try to think very neutrally about the war but I still see this Christianity versus Islam concept in it.

After reading some excerpts from world history I learnt that this is not new. Confrontation of Christianity and Islam had plunged the Europe into a dark age. Crusades have been the bloodiest of battles ever fought for religion and lasted across centuries.

Then after many centuries, there was the abolition of Caliphate of Islam (in turkey after WW1) by the Allied forces. This had also led to a popular uprising in India in the form of Khilafat Movement (started by the brothers Shaukat Ali and Mohammed Ali, this movement marks an era of unprecedented cooperation between Muslims and Hindus in India)

Then there was the partition of India in which the same Hindus, Sikhs and Muslims massacred each other to pieces and raped each other to shame. Millions died in the name of religion.

Then we had the “USSR’s invasion of Afghanistan episode” which saw U.S. side with the Mujaheddin and forced Russia to turn back. I have learnt, that after this war U.S. should have gone back home as well but I guess they didn’t. The Muslim world (or Arabs) understood that on the pretext of helping them fight USSR, the American have gained a back door entry/solution to what the Russian as well as the Americans wanted:

A military presence in the Gulf Region

Irked by this, the soldiers who fought the Red Army used what U.S. has taught them, against the teacher: planning and executing highly sophisticated and coordinated strikes with reconnaissance and surveillance.

And today I stand here a couple of years into the war observing a series of events i.e. cartoons by a Danish artist that shook the world, statements by pope, Bush expecting a religious revolution in America and strong/retaliatory Muslim reactions to each of these event. Alright that’s my piece of mind regarding what I have been observing/reading. Now here is what I would suggest (again based on what I am reading/watching):

America and Allies

1. Pull out of Iraq and Middle East

2. Go home and strengthen your economy. The world cannot afford to have you guys fall apart.

3. Revamp your education. Do not depend completely on immigrants for your supply of engineers and let the wheel of innovation continue turning smoothly. You have been driving it well and you need to continue with the same or better still, enhanced vigor.

4. Set and example for the world. Switch to green and renewable sources of energy. You will automatically stab terrorism in the heart if you do this. (based on Thomas Friedman’s column in NY times)

Arab world

1. Kings must give way to the people and establish republican democracies.

2. Oil has been a boon for you and it has raised your standards of living overnight but it has also been a bane. Know why?

- With the incredible revenue surpluses coming from oil sales, your kings banned taxation. This made life too easy for you and you stopped working hard. Issues that follow are particularly important for you:

Why did you have to call Americans to extinguish oil well fires during the Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait and the 1991 Gulf war?
Why didn’t you have the technology?
Why are you dependent on others?
Why is the number of technological innovations and patent filings from Arab world abysmally low?
Where are the likes of Algebar-Wal-Mukabalai (father of Algerba)?

3. Build more engineering colleges and schools and encourage your children to learn more. You must have your own supply of engineers, scientists, doctors, techies etc

4. Promote you women and never discourage them. Now don’t misunderstand this. I am only asking you to reduce male domination and eliminate atrocities against women. Get them to study engineering/medicine and encourage entrepreneurship amongst them. Women can be really smart if you let them be.

5. Stop mixing religion with studies (does not mean stop religious studies). Keep religious studies different from school studies. Don’t mix them up and confuse your child.

6. Preach toleration (for those who don’t) and preach what you are.

That’s my piece of mind on whatever is happening around us.

Before I answer this question, let me explain you that I have written this article purely as a student of economics (of which demographics is an important part). I do not have any specific feeling towards any religion and this article was not meant to hurt anybody’s sentiments, emotions or religious beliefs. I write this article with the sole intention of stating my analysis and airing my views about the question posed.

Hinduism and a few more religions are popular for the practice of social evils like dowry and discouragement of girl child. The latter happens to such an extent that many families kill a girl as soon as it is born. People continue to kill the female babies until a male is born. There have been numerous reports of such incidents especially from the Northern parts of India like Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi etc. In certain cases, they go on giving birth to children until a male child is born. And once that happens, they have so many children that they are even unable to afford education for all their children.

Please have a look at this sex ratio data that I found on the Census of India Website (exact link needed). Please click on the images to make them more legible:

In the data that I have posted here, Sex Ratio is the number of Females per thousand males. It is paramount that there is a good balance between the number of males and females and neither side is too heavy or too light. As the world sex ratio has been such that the number of females per 1000 males is always less, in my opinion a good ratio for any country would be 980 or more females per thousand males. However, once it is below that 980 figure, the ratio start to become exponentially dangerous in intensity in response to a unit decrease in the number of females per thousand males.

Considering the present trend, if it continues, soon the sex ratio will reach a tipping point and there will be a population implosion in the Hindu society. It will become very difficult for aspiring bridegrooms to find a bride and there might be a situation where a particular set of men will go unmarried because they just couldn’t find a bride.

Now all this may sound crazy but this is simple correlation and the causation is self-evident. Let me tell you about the correlation.

Sex ratio is the number of women per thousand men. If the number of women per thousand men is alarmingly low (as in Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Haryana, Punjab etc) then, when the overall number of men and women (in the region whose sex ratio is in question) is considered the difference in their number turns out to be appalling. Because the majority of Indians are under the age of Twenty-five (and this trend will remain at least until 2020), the given correlation is not affected by the argument that majority of the men in question might already be married (also note another counter argument to this that a majority of the women might also already be married ). So with such a difference in the number of men and women, where will the extra men (a fairly large number) get their brides (assuming that they would like to marry only within their caste/religion)? From another region/state? Not possible, because it’s the same grim scenario almost every where.

This will inevitably result in the decline of the Hindu population as a percentage of the overall population. And just for numbers’ sake: lack of awareness or refusal to use contraceptives and birth control techniques in other communities coupled with factors like polygamy will continue to fuel their population growth.

Dowry system is one of the biggest reasons for such a widespread backlash against the girl child. In my opinion dowry is not an evil until the bridegroom’s side does not demand anything form the Bride’s side and are happy/content or indifferent to whatever the Bride’s side has to offer. However, existence of such a system seems silly sometimes. Hindus can learn some good lessons here, from Islam. From some Muslim friends, I have learnt that there is no system like dowry in Islam. The bride’s and the bridegroom’s side agree to share the cost of the marriage equally which itself is pretty low unlike an average Hindu marriage. In my previous company an American colleague of mine was explaining to me that in American (or Christian) marriages there is nothing like dowry. He said that when a person gets married, his/her friends pool in some money and buy them stuff that could be essential for them to start their married life. When I heard that (apologies if I sound harsh but that’s what I felt), I could imagine Indian Hindu marriages as an auction scene where a boy’s parents award the party (Bride’s side) that gives them the best price for their child )

More results through sex-ratio correlation

With reference to my conclusions drawn on the sex ratio issue, I have another correlation to be presented. From the sex-ratio issue we learnt that the unmarried men will greatly outnumber the unmarried women and there will be a scarcity of unmarried women in particular (and women in general). In other words, there will be an abundance of men. This will lead to an increase in the number of Homosexuals. Suppose (I don’t know what the exact numbers are) today one out of every two hundred men is a Homosexual. So the number of Homosexuals is total number of men divided by 200. In the future when there will be more men (due to a deteriorating sex ratio), the number of Homosexuals will increase.

With the continuing deterioration of sex ratio (and low availability of life-partners from the opposite sex) this number will rise. Many men may have no option left but homosexuality. It is known that some men who work in military etc and are away from their partner (female) for a long time (and have never experienced sexual attraction toward the same sex) may exhibit bi-sexual and later on homosexual orientation/behavior.

While I do not think that Homosexuality is bad or incorrect, and have no issues with the number of Homosexuals going up, I do think that the number will go up for a bad reason i.e. imbalance in sex ratio.

Also, it is know fact that India is a hotbed for all kinds of crimes and atrocities committed against women. With the deterioration or sex ratio, this sort crime is going to go up.
Reversal or even decline of trends in demography take a very long time (from a couple of decades to centuries) and even if all the people stop killing the girl child from today (which can only be a miracle), it will easily be a couple of decades before the sex ratio becomes normal.